The PRB continues to experience a prolonged declining domestic market. Demand has dropped by about 80 million tons since 2008. 2015 production is projected at around 413 million tons, or 5 million below 2014. With high stockpile levels and low gas prices, we see production dropping to below 400 million tons in the next year as stockpiles get drawn down. We see an improvement of 20-30 million tons in 2017; however, our Base Case demand forecast indicates PRB demand could drop to 330 million tons by 2034 and under the proposed EPA “Clean Power Plan” PRB demand could drop by another 30 million tons!
In 2013 we successfully predicted lower stockpiles, a tightening of the market and a $3-$4/ton price spike to occur in early 2014. However, rail transportation issues, a cool summer and low gas prices took the wind out of the early 2014 price spike. Prices again have dropped to levels seen in 2012 and 2013. So, what's it going to take for prices to spike again? When will it happen?
We don't have all of the answers, but we do have many observations and predictions to share with our readers. Prepared as a multi-client consulting study, this investigation is the most comprehensive review available on the PRB and Bull Mountain coalfield's coal geology, reserves, quality, historic, current and future coal production, coal control/ownership, transportation infrastructure, strip ratios, mine productivity and production costs for all active and proposed mines. Also included in this study is a historical analysis of PRB price trends and our twenty year demand and price forecast for PRB coal.
With this report the reader can:
The Powder River Basin Coal Supply, Demand and Price Trends 2014–2034 is available in hard copy. The 2015 Executive Summary Update is available in pdf format.
Please call John Hanou at (410) 279-3818 or email at email@example.com if you have any questions.
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